Facebook !== $10 Billion

[rulian]

Is anybody keeping watch on what is happening with Google, facebook and microsoft? Microsoft is interested in buying a stake at facebook of about 5%, which is nothing to gain any form of control over the platform. But their agreement which will extend their ad servcing agreement from 2006 will (according to the wall street journal) place facebooks assets at 10 (pinky on cheeks) billion dollars!

now, I really dont konw what to make of these web 2.0 companies spring up left and right (specially with mine in the works) and how the industry will fare in 5 years.
Every day I hear of anyther 17 year old kid who makes million off his blog or myspace or other web based space they serve ads on. And I get worried that people are making too much money too easy, that eventually this industry is going to be strained and drained out. When what we do becomes the "get rich quick" scheme, hoards of people jump aboard and eat up and kill it's resources.

It's kinda of the 21st century gold rush, and those of us who are here for the long run are going to find ourselves in a tough spot of being pushed out by an industry that will become more single tracked and less demanding.

In spite of it's successes, I doubt facebook will be around or if so, as demanding as their being now. With google giving away applications and facebook asking developers to contribute for "revenue sharing", i see a trend that will make the actual people who make this stuff possible getting harder to find jobs at a cheaper pay. It's the same reason I'm not thrilled about my companies repeated outsourcing, but I can at least hold my own strategically.

What will be the web developers roll in 5 years? More over, what are we to do when the things we do get done by the top few for faster, cheaper. I honestly feel google is knowingly or not, establishing a monopoly. facebook is simply overestimating how widespread it is, and with software giants like apple and microsoft backing them, its going to be a tough spot for anybody trying to do something ligitimate out there without following their models.

My 2 cents anyway

[dougal85]

Facebook has 39 million active users (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Facebook)

If you hold information about these people, you can influence this number of people and so on. You are in a very powerful position. This is the information age afterall, information is apparently worth billions.

[rulian]

Oh yeah, sites like facebook are a marketer's dream. I work in an ad agency, and see how they run marketing reports and clickthrough optimization and a bunch of other tactics to shove ads in your face that they think will result in greater turn arounds.

It's scary to think, but its true, that when you click on a banner ad, advertisers track your every move whether you buy the product or not, and if you do, they can tell how many clicks it took for you to go from spotting the ad to sales, and that's the correlation of numbers they are interested in
% clicked on ad -> % follow through -> % purchased.

There is a whole industry dedicated "marketing optimization" that minimize the number of clicks that a user has to make before purchasing a product.

When you have websites like facebook that "share" your information with marketers to serve you ads that they have optimized to achieve maximum turnarounds, it's very effective communication.

I don't argue that this is a successfull formula,
I guess I'm discouraged that this is happening, that the web is becoming simply one big banner ad
and I worry what will happen to the industry when the next trend targeted ad outlet hits, because if nothing else is true about technology, the one thing that is constant, no matter how revolutionary the product, something is bound to come and take its place.

[dougal85]

Everything is about advertising. I would like to know how many adverts we seen on an average day. From websites to sides of buses to logo's on tshirts.

They are going to be very common in computer games too, some already do it. particularly EA games.

[callygull]

Ugh, I hate Facebook. I'm sure it's a valuable share, but if you ask me Myspace is better. Facebook is just too bogged down with ridiculous special features, many of which tell you things you never wanted to know about people. Meh, screw Facebook.

~Cally~

edit by admin: no commercial links on the forum, thank you.

[dougal85]

That's your first post? you registered t say that?

I find facebook way better than myspace. myspace is just ugly and annoying. Give users full access to your html/css etc, what do you expect eh?

[rulian]

I fall in between you guys,

I think facebook is much better programmed, but equally as useless as myspace.
myspace's customization is the only thing that made that site stand out, but like douglas said, you give users that much control ugly things will happen.

------
But, this thread is really about the industry and what impact these companies are having on it, not which one is better, facebook or myspace

[dougal85]

dougal not Douglas :)

the most annoying thing for me about myspace is the fact that profiles start playing music.

So if your listening to your own music it interrupts you or if you use multiple tabs and have a few open it also pisses me right off.

websites should not make sound without being prompted. even then I'd rather they didn't.

[rulian]

haha, sorry,
agreed, people load so much crap on their profiles some crash my browser. or tie everything up

[rulian]

Here, I think this article sums it up best
http://www.pcworld.com/article/id,137739-c,sites/article.html

He's right, my major concern over this is the fact that these ridiculous numbers are going to cause another collapse in the market

[schwim]

Hi there,

Personally, I don't think you can blame the companies that are exploiting society's propensity to act like sheep. They have found that if someone says something is cool, others will have a better chance of saying it's cool without having a personal opinion of it. Millions of users later, the name itself is worth a lot. Advertise! Create demographics! Use what you have! Who cares about the state of affairs tomorrow? Make your money while you can!

I understand that I am in the minority, but I see the Myspace and Facebook crowd to be the same group as the accountant that buys a Harley on time, picks up some leather chaps and a nazi helmet, then queues up with 40 other Harley riders to stop at every gas station and have coffee whilst browsing each other's chrome pieces. These people will do and buy anything if the group approves of it. The companies are filling the need.

I've never visited Facebook and I've been to a Myspace page once. I find the point of them to be quite silly and the manic embracing of them even sillier. Regardless, don't blame the guy trying to make a dollar. It's human nature. The reason why the problem exists is because the consumer eats it up. Of course it's going to make it harder for you to succeed. If it were easy, everyone would be doing it.

Of course it's just my opinion in the matter, and I understand that it's usually a very unpopular view, but then again, I don't own an iPod, I use linux for my desktop and I have no blinking objects stuck in my ear because I am too busy to actually hold my phone. I'm so different from Joe Everyman that I'm clearly not the guy to tell you what's popular :)

thanks,
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